The new year is about to let rip and the most important thing to start off the year in a good way is to find the Perth Cup winner. The Group 2 event is the 8th race on the card and jumps at 4.30pm.
The Perth Cup is a massive day at the track for the social race-goer. Sadly most of the time the race doesn't have the quality and strength that it deserves for the real enthusiast and once again this is the case with only about 4 or 5 decent runners in the event.
However putting that all aside there is a good bet in the race - to find out what it is you will have to read through the horse by horse guide to the best chances.
Perth Cup Preview 2011
1. COLOUR CORRECT
Jockey - P Harvey
Trainer - R & C Price
Current PLAYER Odds - $8.50
My Rated Odds - $11
Probably the best horse in the event and certainly has been in good form including a nice last start which in traditionally the best lead up event the CB Cox Stakes over 2100m. He also has premier hoop Paul Harvey in the saddle. The one big negative is his weight impost of 57kg. No horse in the last dozen years has carried more than 55.5kg to win, that impost over a strong 2400m will make things tough. One for the novelties more-so than the win.
2. GOD HAS SPOKEN
Jockey - S Parnham
Trainer - N Parnham
Current PLAYER Odds - $14
My Rated Odds - $21
Talented 4yo who has struggled since a win in the RJ Peters over 1500m defeating Ranger. Is proven at the trip having been placed in the WA Derby last year. His last start effort was poor running last in the CB Cox Stakes and was subsequently found to have had a mild respiratory virus. It will be a big training effort to have him back to his best for this and I suspect he has been behind the eight ball even since that with respect to training. Not an impossible result but would be looking to others at this stage.
3. GUYNO (NZ)
Jockey - J Whiting
Trainer - L Luciani
Current PLAYER Odds - $9
My Rated Odds - $10
A former winner of this race in 2009 who has yet to win another race since. One of the best handicapped in the event with 54kg and has drawn nicely albeit still expected to settle in the back half of the field. Trainer Lou Luciani is experimenting with Blinkers going on in order to spark it into winning form. Latest efforts have been quite good and can certainly figure in the race.
4. ADMIRING
Jockey - S O'Donnell
Trainer - M Grant
Current PLAYER Odds - $11
My Rated Odds - $21
A 5yo mare who has struggled for wins most of her career but is racing in career best form. Split the highly rated Colour Correct and Big Ted when 2nd in the CB Cox Stakes but was suited by the tempo on that occasion. Her biggest problem is the wide gate 16 where she will have to go back early and hope for a run through the field or swoop wide around the home turn. Shaun O'Donnell has picked up the ride after Dan Staeck copped a recent suspension. Given her good form has some claims but the gate just means too tough a run for mine and doesn't have enough class to be able to win without anything but the best run.
5. BIG TED
Jockey - T Turner
Trainer - I Haggerty
Current PLAYER Odds - $8
My Rated Odds - $6.50
A consistent 5yo Marooned gelding who has been beaten less than a length at all 3 of its recent efforts. Was clearly the run of the race sitting outside Impressive Jeuney in very strong tempo and just fading late when beaten by Colour Correct in track record time at WFA level. That effort was an indication of its staying prowess and drops 7kg under handicap conditions. Will be infront of most of its main rivals and making them chase hard. I was fortunate enough to have taken $14 pre-post for this outstanding prospect but still looks to be some value even at a much shorter quote of $8.
6. GUEST WING
Jockey - B Parnham
Trainer - S Edwards
Current PLAYER Odds - $19
My Rated Odds - $21
One of the lowest rated horses ever to contest the Cup but comes into contention with an improved effort in recent starts including splitting the Grant Williams pair of Western Jewel and Ranger in the ATA Handicap. By noted staying sire Right Wing is expected to run out the trip and has drawn well enough. Probably needs to find its very best form or even better to take the event but can an outside chance.
7. LATE NIGHT FLIGHT
Jockey - J Hill
Trainer - S Forrest
Current PLAYER Odds - $61
My Rated Odds - $34
One of the expected leaders and somewhat surprising to see it in the race given its history of racing well over much shorter. 2 starts ago at 1800m it ran a creditable 2nd and last start was at 2100m in the ATA Handicap where after working hard early from a wide gate managed to battle on fairly to finish 5th behind Western jewel beaten only 2.5 lengths. Probably has the task ahead of it at 2400m but given its price of $67 maybe worth a spec bet.
8. MEGA STEEL
Jockey - C Harvey
Trainer - B McClune
Current PLAYER Odds - $21
My Rated Odds - $21
5YO Helenus gelding who fits the profile of a likely Cup winner. Drawn nicely with the ability to race on speed should be sitting pretty with every chance to be in the finish. Has struggled for form this preparation however with the only creditable effort being a 2nd behind Brandy Lane at Listed level. Would need to be at its best but has shown form at the trip and worth throwing into novelties for some value.
9. NEW SPICE
Jockey - P Knuckey
Trainer - E Van Merwyk
Current PLAYED Odds - $51
My Rated Odds - $67
Old Spice 7yo gelding who has perhaps seen the light of better days. Has began putting together more donuts than a police station morning tea including its last two efforts finishing at the tail of the field. Is nicely weighted but given its RECENT FORM and wide draw could not see it figuring in the finish.
10. RANGER
Jockey - W Pike
Trainer - G Williams
Current PLAYED Odds - $4.60
My Rated Odds - $7
A heavy pre-post favorite who has drifted after being as short as $3.50 at one stage and has come a long way this prep which started with a lowly Pinjarra maiden win. The remaining 5 efforts have all been in strong company including 2 wins a slashing 5th in the WFA Kingston Town Classic. The barrier draw has however thrown a spanner in the works and will have to settle well off the speed or take a chance early and hope to find a position without being caught wide - either way it will make it a lot tougher. There may also be a slight query over the trip being by Testa Rossa and having seemingly come to the end of its run in the late stages of the ATA Handicap where Western jewel and Guest Wing beat it. Does meet them both better off at the weights however and one of the best handicapped horses in the race getting in on the minimum.
11. RICH SUCCESS (NZ)
Jockey - D Lane
Trainer - R MacPhilomey
Current PLAYER Odds - $51
My Rated Odds - $67
Everyone loves an outsider and this is it. Has come in from $301 odds first offered to be at $51. A handy 3yo stayed in Melbourne who lost all form but has started to find things easier in Geraldton winning a couple of recent races. Likely to be leading or close to it early in the event and could give its backers a run for a long way but not up to class required to take out this and likely to weaken late.
12. SIMPLY ADORABLE
Jockey - P Carbery
Trainer - V Sigley
Current PLAYER Odds - $34
My Rated Odds - $67
Blackfriars mare who hit a purple patch of form last prep winning the Pinjarra Cup when Dashing Dan Miller out rode his rivals. Has struggled a touch this prep and altough not beaten far hasn't ever looked like winning. The wide draw makes life even tougher and although she will probably beat quite a few home her chances of actually winning the race looked really limited. Maybe slip into 4th for a quartet but thats about as far as you can go.
13. TARA MAN
Jockey - S Price
Trainer - T McEvoy
Current PLAYER Odds - $17
My Rated Odds - $26
The only Eastern Stater in the event which is pretty disappointing. Couldn't be in better hands with McEvoy and Price however her form in SA and Vict would rate well below top level. Must also cope with the travel and new environment plus some very hot recent weather which has been known to take the edge off visiting horses in the past. Only a flukers hope for mine.
14. TELEXDEN
SCRATCHED
15. TRANQUILITY
Jockey - A Kennedy
Trainer - G Williams
Current PLAYER Odds - $8.50
My Rated Odds - $11
A very promising mare (pictured with strapper Louise DeRosa) and one of the best bred gallopers in the race being by Redoute's Choice. She has come on quickly and wouldn't have been considered for the race a few months ago but her good form in fillies and mares races plus the way she hits the line has her in contention. Has the early speed to find a good forward position and should get every chance in the run. Personally I feel she may be a year away from being the real good horse needed to win the race but wouldn't be a total shock and a must for novelty players.
16. WESTERN JEWEL
Jockey - B Kennedy
Trainer - G Williams
Current PLAYER Odds - $5.50
My Rated Odds - $10
Talented mare who comes into this with as good form as any of her rivals. Her 14 runs this prep have included 6 wins and 9 runs at 2000m or further so has plenty of miles in the legs. Nearly all those efforts have been in weaker grade near the minimum weight. Her last start win in the ATA Handicap was courtesy a terrific ride by Kyra Yuill who copped a suspension and has been replaced by Ben Kennedy who takes the ride for the first time. Mares need to be pretty good to win a Perth Cup and whilst I have no doubt she can run the trip she may lack that touch of brilliance required, coupled with the fact she could be sitting 3,4 or 5 back on the fence and get blocked I think she is just an outside e/w chance rather than a serious contender.
17. KAWATIRI
Jockey - C McCallum
Trainer - D Morton
Current PLAYER Odds - $71
My Rated Odds - $101
Having its 4th run into what has been a very ordinary preparation. Is going so poorly the handicapper balloted it out in favour of Guest Wing but has now gained a start after the scratching of Telexden. Unless you have some inside oil from the trainer or connections that it has improved many many lengths then hard to recommend this galloper. The one positive is the big race ride for promising apprentice Campbell McCallum.
SELECTIONS in Rating order
1. BIG TED 2. RANGER 3. GUYNO 4. WESTERN JEWEL
Good Punting and Have a Great New Year and 2011
The Perth Cup is a massive day at the track for the social race-goer. Sadly most of the time the race doesn't have the quality and strength that it deserves for the real enthusiast and once again this is the case with only about 4 or 5 decent runners in the event.
However putting that all aside there is a good bet in the race - to find out what it is you will have to read through the horse by horse guide to the best chances.
Perth Cup Preview 2011
1. COLOUR CORRECT
Jockey - P Harvey
Trainer - R & C Price
Current PLAYER Odds - $8.50
My Rated Odds - $11
Probably the best horse in the event and certainly has been in good form including a nice last start which in traditionally the best lead up event the CB Cox Stakes over 2100m. He also has premier hoop Paul Harvey in the saddle. The one big negative is his weight impost of 57kg. No horse in the last dozen years has carried more than 55.5kg to win, that impost over a strong 2400m will make things tough. One for the novelties more-so than the win.
2. GOD HAS SPOKEN
Jockey - S Parnham
Trainer - N Parnham
Current PLAYER Odds - $14
My Rated Odds - $21
Talented 4yo who has struggled since a win in the RJ Peters over 1500m defeating Ranger. Is proven at the trip having been placed in the WA Derby last year. His last start effort was poor running last in the CB Cox Stakes and was subsequently found to have had a mild respiratory virus. It will be a big training effort to have him back to his best for this and I suspect he has been behind the eight ball even since that with respect to training. Not an impossible result but would be looking to others at this stage.
3. GUYNO (NZ)
Jockey - J Whiting
Trainer - L Luciani
Current PLAYER Odds - $9
My Rated Odds - $10
A former winner of this race in 2009 who has yet to win another race since. One of the best handicapped in the event with 54kg and has drawn nicely albeit still expected to settle in the back half of the field. Trainer Lou Luciani is experimenting with Blinkers going on in order to spark it into winning form. Latest efforts have been quite good and can certainly figure in the race.
4. ADMIRING
Jockey - S O'Donnell
Trainer - M Grant
Current PLAYER Odds - $11
My Rated Odds - $21
A 5yo mare who has struggled for wins most of her career but is racing in career best form. Split the highly rated Colour Correct and Big Ted when 2nd in the CB Cox Stakes but was suited by the tempo on that occasion. Her biggest problem is the wide gate 16 where she will have to go back early and hope for a run through the field or swoop wide around the home turn. Shaun O'Donnell has picked up the ride after Dan Staeck copped a recent suspension. Given her good form has some claims but the gate just means too tough a run for mine and doesn't have enough class to be able to win without anything but the best run.
5. BIG TED
Jockey - T Turner
Trainer - I Haggerty
Current PLAYER Odds - $8
My Rated Odds - $6.50
A consistent 5yo Marooned gelding who has been beaten less than a length at all 3 of its recent efforts. Was clearly the run of the race sitting outside Impressive Jeuney in very strong tempo and just fading late when beaten by Colour Correct in track record time at WFA level. That effort was an indication of its staying prowess and drops 7kg under handicap conditions. Will be infront of most of its main rivals and making them chase hard. I was fortunate enough to have taken $14 pre-post for this outstanding prospect but still looks to be some value even at a much shorter quote of $8.
6. GUEST WING
Jockey - B Parnham
Trainer - S Edwards
Current PLAYER Odds - $19
My Rated Odds - $21
One of the lowest rated horses ever to contest the Cup but comes into contention with an improved effort in recent starts including splitting the Grant Williams pair of Western Jewel and Ranger in the ATA Handicap. By noted staying sire Right Wing is expected to run out the trip and has drawn well enough. Probably needs to find its very best form or even better to take the event but can an outside chance.
7. LATE NIGHT FLIGHT
Jockey - J Hill
Trainer - S Forrest
Current PLAYER Odds - $61
My Rated Odds - $34
One of the expected leaders and somewhat surprising to see it in the race given its history of racing well over much shorter. 2 starts ago at 1800m it ran a creditable 2nd and last start was at 2100m in the ATA Handicap where after working hard early from a wide gate managed to battle on fairly to finish 5th behind Western jewel beaten only 2.5 lengths. Probably has the task ahead of it at 2400m but given its price of $67 maybe worth a spec bet.
8. MEGA STEEL
Jockey - C Harvey
Trainer - B McClune
Current PLAYER Odds - $21
My Rated Odds - $21
5YO Helenus gelding who fits the profile of a likely Cup winner. Drawn nicely with the ability to race on speed should be sitting pretty with every chance to be in the finish. Has struggled for form this preparation however with the only creditable effort being a 2nd behind Brandy Lane at Listed level. Would need to be at its best but has shown form at the trip and worth throwing into novelties for some value.
9. NEW SPICE
Jockey - P Knuckey
Trainer - E Van Merwyk
Current PLAYED Odds - $51
My Rated Odds - $67
Old Spice 7yo gelding who has perhaps seen the light of better days. Has began putting together more donuts than a police station morning tea including its last two efforts finishing at the tail of the field. Is nicely weighted but given its RECENT FORM and wide draw could not see it figuring in the finish.
10. RANGER
Jockey - W Pike
Trainer - G Williams
Current PLAYED Odds - $4.60
My Rated Odds - $7
A heavy pre-post favorite who has drifted after being as short as $3.50 at one stage and has come a long way this prep which started with a lowly Pinjarra maiden win. The remaining 5 efforts have all been in strong company including 2 wins a slashing 5th in the WFA Kingston Town Classic. The barrier draw has however thrown a spanner in the works and will have to settle well off the speed or take a chance early and hope to find a position without being caught wide - either way it will make it a lot tougher. There may also be a slight query over the trip being by Testa Rossa and having seemingly come to the end of its run in the late stages of the ATA Handicap where Western jewel and Guest Wing beat it. Does meet them both better off at the weights however and one of the best handicapped horses in the race getting in on the minimum.
11. RICH SUCCESS (NZ)
Jockey - D Lane
Trainer - R MacPhilomey
Current PLAYER Odds - $51
My Rated Odds - $67
Everyone loves an outsider and this is it. Has come in from $301 odds first offered to be at $51. A handy 3yo stayed in Melbourne who lost all form but has started to find things easier in Geraldton winning a couple of recent races. Likely to be leading or close to it early in the event and could give its backers a run for a long way but not up to class required to take out this and likely to weaken late.
12. SIMPLY ADORABLE
Jockey - P Carbery
Trainer - V Sigley
Current PLAYER Odds - $34
My Rated Odds - $67
Blackfriars mare who hit a purple patch of form last prep winning the Pinjarra Cup when Dashing Dan Miller out rode his rivals. Has struggled a touch this prep and altough not beaten far hasn't ever looked like winning. The wide draw makes life even tougher and although she will probably beat quite a few home her chances of actually winning the race looked really limited. Maybe slip into 4th for a quartet but thats about as far as you can go.
13. TARA MAN
Jockey - S Price
Trainer - T McEvoy
Current PLAYER Odds - $17
My Rated Odds - $26
The only Eastern Stater in the event which is pretty disappointing. Couldn't be in better hands with McEvoy and Price however her form in SA and Vict would rate well below top level. Must also cope with the travel and new environment plus some very hot recent weather which has been known to take the edge off visiting horses in the past. Only a flukers hope for mine.
14. TELEXDENSCRATCHED
15. TRANQUILITY
Jockey - A Kennedy
Trainer - G Williams
Current PLAYER Odds - $8.50
My Rated Odds - $11
A very promising mare (pictured with strapper Louise DeRosa) and one of the best bred gallopers in the race being by Redoute's Choice. She has come on quickly and wouldn't have been considered for the race a few months ago but her good form in fillies and mares races plus the way she hits the line has her in contention. Has the early speed to find a good forward position and should get every chance in the run. Personally I feel she may be a year away from being the real good horse needed to win the race but wouldn't be a total shock and a must for novelty players.
16. WESTERN JEWEL
Jockey - B Kennedy
Trainer - G Williams
Current PLAYER Odds - $5.50
My Rated Odds - $10
Talented mare who comes into this with as good form as any of her rivals. Her 14 runs this prep have included 6 wins and 9 runs at 2000m or further so has plenty of miles in the legs. Nearly all those efforts have been in weaker grade near the minimum weight. Her last start win in the ATA Handicap was courtesy a terrific ride by Kyra Yuill who copped a suspension and has been replaced by Ben Kennedy who takes the ride for the first time. Mares need to be pretty good to win a Perth Cup and whilst I have no doubt she can run the trip she may lack that touch of brilliance required, coupled with the fact she could be sitting 3,4 or 5 back on the fence and get blocked I think she is just an outside e/w chance rather than a serious contender.
17. KAWATIRI
Jockey - C McCallum
Trainer - D Morton
Current PLAYER Odds - $71
My Rated Odds - $101
Having its 4th run into what has been a very ordinary preparation. Is going so poorly the handicapper balloted it out in favour of Guest Wing but has now gained a start after the scratching of Telexden. Unless you have some inside oil from the trainer or connections that it has improved many many lengths then hard to recommend this galloper. The one positive is the big race ride for promising apprentice Campbell McCallum.
SELECTIONS in Rating order
1. BIG TED 2. RANGER 3. GUYNO 4. WESTERN JEWEL
Good Punting and Have a Great New Year and 2011





