Belmont Jock Challenge 29.06

Have hit a bit of slump in recent weeks - thankfully we are still playing with profit.

Russell Hanson was our top pick at Kal on Sunday but he looked a bit of unders at odds-on, that proved to be incorrect as he rode like a demon to score 4 winners.

Today at Belmont we fancy Peter Knuckey to have a good day. Hopefully old Knuckles can do the right thing and get a few winners today. Ryan Hill is the value backup.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
PKnuckey 6 $2.4
WPike 5 $4.2
JBrown 3 $10
RHill (2.0) 5 $12
PHarvey 4 $15
MGrantham (3.0) 4 $24
Any Other na $30
KYuill (1.5) 4 $50
*Rides considered point scoring chances


Using our new blance of $1,205 and the Kelly system bets are

Knuckey $203 @ $3.20 - profit of $411 if successful
Ryan Hill $36 @ $15 - profit of $301 if successful

GOOD PUNTING

Million Dollar Challenge Bet 4

Bet 3 came through for us but not without a scare as a poor kicking Collingwood let Sydney back into the contest but thankfully did enough to reclaim the lead and hang on. The tennis bets and the other footy match were never in doubt.

For Week 4 I will combine Tennis and Footy again but a bit simpler with just one bet from each code.

Tonight at Wimbledon home crowd favorite Andy Murray takes on Feliciano Lopez -ranked 4th and 44th respectively.

Murray has beaten Lopez all 4 times they have clashed with a 8 sets to 1 advantage.

The last tournament they both competed was on grass and Lopez was beaten narrowly by Andy Roddick in the 2nd round before Muray took Roddick out in convincing 6-3 6-1 fashion in the semi finals.

Lopez squeaked through his last match at Wimbledon in 5 sets and it looks like Murray can take him to the cleaners tonight - $1.10 appeals as a decent price.

This Saturday night Geelong take on Essendon. Geelong come in with a very easy win over Adelaide whilst Essendon's form is going backwards after getting smashed by Hawthorn but also losing a few previous matches.

Geelong will be regaining some good players and those in the side are desperately trying to impress the coach and selectors for finals time so I don;t expect any slackening off. Essendon have lost all system and confidence - think this could be another belting for them.

Once again we will take the $1.10 for the win and an ALL-UP price on both bets of $1.21.


$400 from our bank at $1.21 produces a profit of $84. $80 will make the new balance $480 whilst our retained amount will go to $13.66.

Fingers Crossed.

Kalgoorlie Jock Challenge 26.06

Have decided to have a play with the Jock Challenge today at Kal.

Yesterday as Belmont Pike was too good booting home 3 winners whilst my main bet Yuill had a day she would rather forget butchering a few good rides and coming up with limited points. My longshot Staeck did ok with 5 pts but never challenged Pike.

Today at Kal is very limited with small fields and only a few riders dominating proceedings.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
RDHanson 7 $2.3
MBazeley 6 $4.3
MGrantham (1.5) 7 $5.4
CMcCallum 7 $9.4
RForrest (3.0) 4 $66
RHill (1.5) 4 $90
Any Other na $100
RRhodes 4 $125
*Rides considered point scoring chances

Using our new bank of $1,454 and the Kelly Criterion we have

Bazeley $154 @ $6.50 - Profit of $752 if successful
Grantham $95 @ $7 - Profit of $416 if successful


GOOD PUNTING

Belmont 25.06 Jock Challenge

A loss of $712 at Northam depletes the bank to $1,712.

Today at Belmont we think Kyra Yuill can return to the saddle in good fashion.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
KYuill (1.5) 6 $2.1
SO'Donnell 6 $5
WPike 5 $12
PHarvey 4 $12
Any Other na $18
DJStaeck 3 $22
CMcCallum (2.0) 5 $24
JWhiting 4 $31
*Rides considered point scoring chances

Bets are

Yuill $194 @ $2.40 - Profit $208
P Harvey $34 @ $14 - $218
Staeck $30 @ $31 - $672

GOOD PUNTING

Pinj Jock Challenge 23.06

Must say we were a bit stiff not to walk away with a profit yesterday with McCallum and McGruddy both having good chances in the last and in a 6 way photo finish neither of them could run in the top 2. Thankfully McGruddy did get 3rd which meant a small loss of just over $300 rather than what would have been a distaster if he didn't atleast get up for a deadheat.

Pinjarra today is very interesting - rain coming in so that could force some surprise results.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
WPike 5 $1.93
Any Other na $11
PHarvey 4 $12
CChatfield 5 $13
DJStaeck 5 $14
SO'Donnell 4 $17
TTurner 4 $17
JWhiting 4 $24
*Rides considered point scoring chances


Using our new bank of $2,424 and the Kelly criterion the bets are:

Pike $439 at $2.10 - profit of $210 if successful
Harvey $101 at $17 - profit of $1,005
Chatfield $81 at $17 - profit of $665
Turner $91 at $35 - profit of $2,473

fingers crossed for a winning result

GOOD PUNTING

Belmont Jock Challenge 22.06

We are going all-out today on what looks an easy meeting to find the Jock Challenge winner - I think its a race in 3 and the corporates have let us on - well sort of.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
CMcCallum (2.0) 6 $1.65
SMcGruddy 5 $5.5
SO'Donnell 6 $8.0
Any Other na $35
DJStaeck 3 $70
JBrown 3 $75
MGrantham (3.0) 3 $80
WPike 3 $150
*Rides considered point scoring chances

One of the betting agencies were offerred up $13 for McGruddy initially has knocked us back at lower odds and we have scrambled to get some of our money on - but we still have got on at overs.

Bets from our bank of $2,812 and the Kelly criterion are

McCallum $1220 @ $1.85 - profit of $340 if successful
McGruddy $438 @ $8 - profit of $1339 if successful
O'Donnell $272 @ $11 - profit of $1046 if successful

GOOD PUNTING

Million Dollar Challenge : Week 3 Bet

Week 2 successful with both the Hawks and West Coast fulfilling there 15.5 point obligation getting over bottom sides. West Coast did look a bit shaky there for a while but I expect there is going to be a lot closer calls than that before we get to the $1 million.

Balance $325 retained $1.70

My theme for Week 3 is called "Sticking with the strength"

I am not really a tennis fan but the opening rounds of Wimbledon look good opportunities to take advantage of the class players taking on much lower ranked opponents and even at $1.01 or $1.02 we think thats value. The good thing about tennis betting is that if the game does not get completed it becomes void so if any of our players we have backed do get hurt during the match we are safe and can't lose our money.

We are coupling up Federer $1.01, Djokovic $1.01 and Roddick $1.02 to get the job done tonight.

Then later on during the week we have gone to the strength of the best 2 teams in the AFL comp in Collingwood and Geelong.

Collingwood have a brilliant record at ANZ stadium against Sydney and should have too much power. Sydney nearly always beat the lower ranked sides but vice versa generally always get done by the stronger ones. They were compleely outclassed by Carlton last week and we think Collingwood are certainly a bit better than the Blues. The Pies do come off the bye this week which has been bad news this year but a quick trip to Arizona for a few players and the expert coaching staff should have them pumped for a win.

Geelong play at Skilled Stadium against the hapless Adelaide Crows. I think Geelong have won something like 26 in a row at there home ground, there last loss was in 2007. Its just an easy opportunity to add more $$$ to this 5 leg multi.

Our balance if this bet is successful will be $400 with retained amount of $9.66.

Belmont 18.06 Jock Challenge

Bank now at a healthy $2610 after Peter Knuckey did the right thing on Thursday at Northam.

A tough card at Belmont today but one hoop who stands out is William Pike with several good rides - it could be the type of day were 6 or 7 points is all thats needed to take the Challenge and he looks very likely to get that score. Grantham could spring a surprise - he rides one heavily favoured runner and a few of his other mounts are capable of getting into the placings.

Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
WPike 7 $1.6
MGrantham (3.0) 6 $6.5
TTurner 5 $10
Any Other na $20
CMcCallum (2.0) 4 $40
PHarvey 3 $70
SO'Donnell 3 $80
JWhiting 3 $90
*Rides considered point scoring chances

So using Kelly and available prices we are going with

Pike $684 @ $1.70 - profit of $202 if successful
Grantham $277 @ $13 - profit of $2640 if successful

GOOD PUNTING

Million Dollar Challenge - Bet 2

Well our first bet got the chocolates but it was a few anxious moments as the Jockey went way too early and nearly cost us the race - thankfully the horse has plenty of ability and held out the challengers.

Watch FRANKEL win the James Palace Stakes




Our bank moves to $270 for Bet 2.

I have gone to my favorite sport in AFL and found two teams who look set for finals action up against cellar dwellers. Its Hawthorn v Gold Coast and West Coast v Port Adelaide.

Hard to see an upset here as both home sides are looking to press towards finals action and have been in good recent form, neither side has too many injury concerns and can see both games being blowouts. Have checked weather reports just incase of heavy rain but everything looks relatively clear so piling in for both sides to cover a 15.5 line.



If we get the cash our bank moves to $325 with $1.70 retained to start paying back the initial $200 investment.

Northam 16.06 Jock Challenge

A good result yesterday with Any Other getting us the cash and boosting up the bank back to $2,287.

A skinny Challenge at Northam today but the bookies have let us get on (just).


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
WPike 6 $1.95
SParnham 5 $4.3
PKnuckey 5 $7
TTurner 4 $16
SO'Donnell 4 $36
Any Other na $80
CMcCallum 3 $80
JWhiting 2 $200
*Rides considered point scoring chances

With available prices and using the Kelly criterion with have bets of

Pike $308 @ $2 - profit of $59 if successful
S Parnham $139 @ $4.40 - profit of $55
Knuckey $110 @ $8 - profit of $323

GOOD PUNTING

Belmont 15.06 Jock Challenge

An interesting Jock Challenge today at Belmont. A number of riders who could quite possibly win it today haven't been listed which makes Any Other a distinct possibility.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
PKnuckey 5 $3.0
Any Other na $3.0
PHarvey 4 $8.5
SO'Donnell 3 $12
CMcCallum (2.0) 3 $20
TTurner 4 $20
DuncMiller 2 $50
WPike 3 $70
*Rides considered point scoring chances

We are back to $1,715 after Pike failed on Saturday. The bets for today as follows

Knuckey $448 @ $7.50 - profit of $2,572 if successful
Any Other $340 @ $4 - profit of $572 if successful

Fingers crossed for a result today.

GOOD PUNTING

Million Dollar Challenge

This is a concept that I first started on my former website Perth Turf Talk and am keen to give it another crack after a few past failures.

The thought process is very simple - you start with a small amount of money ($200 in this case) and find one good thing a week (around $1.20 odds) and continue to bet all the balance for 50 weeks.

Using the formula $200 x $1.20 to the power of 50 = $1.8 million when the final bet salutes.

Now I won't be strictly taking $1.20 everytime and if I get on a bit of a roll there be the occasional rounding down where I pocket a bit of cash for safe keeping but we are looking to hit $1 million on the 50th bet. Fingers crossed bigtime It could happen.

WEEK 1 BET

We are kicking off the $1 million dollar challenge at ROYAL ASCOT with the opening day and one of my favorite International gallopers in FRANKEL. This horse is currently undefeated and If you haven't seen his last win in the 1000 guineas then do a bit of a Youtube search. Its well worth watching and up there with the most dominant performance's in a Group 1 victory that I have ever seen.

I think he will juat make mince meat of them again tonight and at $1.35 we can get our bank up to $270 for bet 2. The race goes at 10.45pm WA time tonight.

Belmont Jock Challenge 11/06

A top day of racing at Belmont today.

William Pike looks the man in the saddle today - rarely does a Jockey get rated this short so hopefully it's a correct assessment.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
WPike 6 $1.6
KYuill (1.5) 5 $7
PHarvey 4 $17
JWhiting 4 $21
Any Other na $22
MGrantham (3.0) 4 $23
CMcCallum (2.0) 4 $36
JBrown 2 $72
*Rides considered point scoring chances

So based on our Bank of $2,061 and using the Kelly criterion we have

Pike $318 @ $1.80 - profit of $226 if successful
McCallum $28 @ $61 - profit of $1,362


GOOD PUNTING

Belmont Jocks Challenge 8th June

The Northam Jock Challenge panned out well on Monday and was never really in doubt - The TAB favorites in Pike and Yuill only scored 3 and 0 points respectively. Would have been great for Turner to get there but he was just pipped by Duncan Miller with 9 points but still boosted our bank back to $2,010.

Today at Belmont it seems they have got one right - fairly accurately priced today.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
WPike 5 $3.5
PHarvey 4 $6
JWhiting 5 $6
Any Other na $6
MGrantham (3.0) 3 $11
PKnuckey 3 $18
SParnham 3 $38
KYuill (1.5) 3 $42
*Rides considered point scoring chances

A small overlay on 2 riders results in these bets

Pike $54 @ $3.70 - profit of $125 if successful
Grantham $21 @ $12 - profit of $177

GOOD PUNTING

Northam Jock Challenge 6th June

On Saturday I made the prediction that if Kyra Yuill had one bad result on her hotpot rides she would struggle to win the Jocks Challenge - and whilst I got that exactly right we however failed to pick up the cash after Troy Turner turned it the winning performance with 2 wins and a 2nd, spewin because his price was a tick below what we had rated him.

Today we are really putting our cash on the line in what looks to be a rather surprisinging market that has been dished up by the corporates and TAB's - I am struggling to comprehend how they have arrived at this one, so hopefully no egg on my face later today.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
TTurner 4 $2.6
SO'Donnell 4 $6.7
PHarvey 3 $8
WPike 4 $12
PCarbery 3 $15
DuncMiller 3 $16
KYuill 4 $16
Any Other na $16
*Rides considered point scoring chances

Now surprisingly Pike $2.70 and Yuill $3.40 are heavily favoured today which I strongly disagree with obviously - they have a few decent rides but nowehere near normal and there are plenty of open races today and a few standout runners on the card are not to be ridden by them.

This leaves a lot of overs on plenty of other Jockeys which means we are investing a lot of our bank covering the potential overlays.

Turner $499 @ $6.50 - profit of $2,308 if successful
O'Donnell $149 @ $7.50 - profit of $182
Harvey $141 @ $12 - profit of $757
Carbery $79 $26 - profit of $1,119
Dunc Miller $67 @ $21 - profit of $472

Fingers crossed we come out on top with this one investing $935 of our bank of $1,538

Belmont Jock Challenge 4th June

Got back into the winners circle on Thursday when Kyra Yuill booted home the last winner - Bank moves to $2,009.

Kyra probably has a couple of the best individual rides today but not with much depth so it will only take one to run 3rd or miss a place and she will struggle - so happy to be betting around her today.

Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
WPike 7 $2.9
SO'Donnell 5 $4.4
KYuill (1.5) 5 $6
TTurner 5 $10
SParnham 6 $11
PKnuckey 4 $22
Any Other na $81
CMcCallum (2.0) 2 $501
*Rides considered point scoring chances

With available prices and using the Kelly formula once again we have

Pike $277 @ $3.70 - profit of $554 if successful
O'Donnell $122 @ $4.60 - profit of $90
S Parnham $72 @ $16 - profit of $177

GOOD PUNTING

Pinj Jocks Challenge 02.06

Running a bit late today with the early start but have got some Jock Challenge bets happening.

Yesterday we had a crack and failed miserably with Steven Panrham blitzing the field - hoping to bounce back today with the balance shrinking.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
KYuill 4 $3.5
PHarvey 4 $4.8
PHall 3 $5
WPike 4 $8
Any Other na $16
PKnuckey 3 $27
DuncMiller 3 $29
TTurner 2 $42
*Rides considered point scoring chances


Using the new balance of $1,479 and the Kelly betting system we have

Yuill $187 @ $4.75 - profit of $530 if successful
Hall $171 @ $9 - profit of $1181

GOOD PUNTING