Belmont Jockey Challenge 01.06 and a special bet

As some people may have seen I have started a new role working with Perth Racing to produce a specialised form guide which is available oncourse and also at The Brook (Ellenbrook) and The Gate (Success) and also a weekly column on the PR.com website - as such i have decided to hold fire on giving out selections on the blog for the time being.

However I will still be continuing on with the Jocks Challenge and think I have found a good play today. No Jocks have more than 1 standout ride today but the two riders I am backing have the best spread of winning chances. Todays winner could book in with just 6 or 7 points and they are most likely by my calculations to do that.


Jockey Challenge
Name *Rides Price
TTurner 5 $3.2
SO'Donnell 5 $4.0
KYuill (1.5) 5 $9.0
CMcCallum (2.0) 5 $10
Any Other na $11
SParnham 3 $13
PHarvey 3 $28
WPike 3 $41
*Rides considered point scoring chances

Turner and O'Donnell are both available at $7 with Luxbet and using my available balance of $2,414 and the Kelly Betting System we have

Turner $543 @ $7 - profit of $2831 if successful
O'Donnell $392 @ $7 - profit of $1774


THE SPECIAL BET

A shout out to Andrew "AJ" Jones who put me onto this one.

Within the AFL season 2011 bets on PLAYER who will see a link called "Best Finish"

The first market that appears is Carlton $1.51 v Fremantle $2.37

Carlton already hold a 6 point plus significant % break on Fremantle and this week Carlton are heavily favoured to defeat Port whilst Freo travell away to Hawthorn in what is surely a massive test. If both games go to plan the ladder margin will be 10 points.

I have also run some likely results for the rest of the year via the Bailey Ladder Predictor which is available at AFL.com and even given marginal games to Freo and against Carlton I still have Carlton holding a 6point break at the end of the year.

Even more mystifying on these current odds is that PLAYER's own Top 4 market has

Carlton $1.55
Fremantle $15

Anyway I have already had a good bet on this and the price hasn't moved - hopefully I have a good day on the punt at Belmont as I plan on putting a bit more on.

GOOD PUNTING